The Scalability of Tech

Howdy,

Last week we discussed the effect that technology has upon our mind.

This week, we're talking about the scalability of technology.

If at any point you get confused on this one, scroll to the bottom for a simple image.

What's your headline of the 20th century?

Human progress can be slow to measure. It seems like things aren't getting better. In fact, it oftentimes feels like things are getting worse.

Let's zoom out: what would your headline of the 20th century be?

There are various answers you could think through. Most people think through events such as WWI, WWII, the atomic bomb, JFK's assassination, the moon landing, the Vietnam war, the civil rights movement, or Watergate.

All of these events center on our American lens.

So would one of these be the headline of the 20th century?

No. According to Steven Johnson, this would: life expectancy across the globe doubled in the 20th century.

Steven Johnson's work, Extra Life - A Short History of Living Longer, centers on the idea that we've ignored the incredible advancement of modern technology's ability to keep us alive longer.

Global life expectancy over the past 120 years (Introducing the Extra Life Project).

Moore's Law: Computing Growth in the 20th Century

We wouldn't have doubled life expectancy without technology, so what did innovation look like from a computing standpoint over the 20th century? Moore's Law helps us break this down.

(It's actually not a law, merely an observation, but almost everyone refers to it colloquially as Moore's Law so work with me here ppl.)

In 1965, while working as Director of R&D at Fairchild Semiconductor, Gordon Moore noted that the components in a dense integrated circuit doubled roughly every 2 years. A function that doubles itself is exponential and leads to scale.

Compounding growth takes time. While the initial advancements in computing seemed slow in the 20th century, they've laid the foundation for what is to come in the 21st century.

Fun fact: Gordon Moore went on to co-found Intel, the world's largest semiconductor chip manufacturer. One of Intel's chips may be powering the device you read this on now.

Graph depicting the doubling of components each year from Moore's original paper (Original Draft from 1965).

We're on the edge of incredible advancement.

The previous graph used a logarithmic scale. This helps us take large numbers/immense growth and make it more easily consumable/compactable. We can easily mistake the meaning of this data if we do not pay attention to the transistor count on the y-axis in the image above.

This next image is on a linear scale. The trend in the image below touches upon the same trend in computing (increased power, getting cheaper) as the image above, just in a different manner of visualizing the concept.

It is mind-blowing. We are at the edge of steep advancement.

We are building technology that is more powerful and more affordable at a rate that puts the previous 120 years of innovation in the dust.

Growth begets growth. Computing power begets computing power.

(Why Most of Us Fail to Grasp Coming Exponential Gains in AI)

What will the headline of the 21st century be?

The headline of the 20th century - doubling our life expectancy - happened to the left of the stick figure in the image below.

Now, look at the growth we will experience together to the right of the stick figure.

Perhaps the headline of the 21st century will be about life expectancy. Perhaps it will be about poverty eradication, space exploration, or clean energy. I can't say.

I can't say that the 21st century will be without suffering or hardship. I can't say there won't be bad characters who will try to manipulate this technology.

What I can say is that, despite the bleakness of what we see in the news, there is no question that we are collectively moving forward together as a human race. Sometimes, we just need to zoom out and see where we've been to take comfort in where we are going.

The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence (Wait But Why)

Thanks for reading

Go build something that contributes to the headline of the 21st century,

Josh